My Portfolio 11.12.21

Here is my closed trades and open trades for the December. Well it was't an active month. I've made only 16 trades. Average loss is -2.29%, averages profit 5.54%.
Right now I have several shorts for LNKD and GMCR. Both of them look very weak comparing to the general market, that is why I'm keeping them. I do not see any strength from the buyers. This period was a very tricky, so to lower my risk I bought several longs. Right now I have open trades and the bullish side for RRC, CPX, SPRD and SLV. Each of these trades are going well except SLV trade. However, I want to inform you guys that this trade was made on a weekly monthly charts. I'm expecting to see SLV at least 35-40$ during the next 3 months.

By the way, keep in mind that my Signal day post is still active. I'm watching this rally in the commodities and I'm planning to open new trades when we will see some selling. My main stock in the watch list for commodities are SGG, WEAT, CORN .

At this stage I do not think I will be opening any new trades during the Christmas week. I have enough trades right now that needs to be managed ;)

We are in the center of the battlefield for bulls and bears. Anything can happen. Yesterday was very bullish and there are a lot of people who decided that Christmas rally had just started. Personally I'm more cautious and I want to preserve my capital.

Signal day in the commodities market

Sugar, Corn, Wheat, Coffee.. all of those markets today had a signal that there the buyers are starting to get in. Corn and Wheat gave the strongest signal. I suggest keeping an eye at those commodities. In case I see the change in the dynamics of the price I will be entering long positions. Anyway, in case you will read this blog I will definitely inform you guys.  

Here are the charts. Look at the price Japanese candlestick formations, moving averages, price dynamics in hourly charts. Here are the first signals that the down trend might be over for a short term trader.. 

 

Why it's worth preparing to short Apple (AAPL)?

 Personally I do not have open positions at AAPL, however, I'm starting to feel that the moment for the good short will be available. On the daily chart (1st chart) we can see the consolidation of the price at the levels between 400$ - 360$. However, the last lower high at the start of December indicates of the possibility of the change of the general trend. It is only signal and it shows that maybe the dynamics of the price MIGHT change. I will be looking at the break of 200 MA below 360$. The plan is to short a bounce up after the break of the general trend. Stochastics in daily and monthly (3rd chart) show the momentum of the stock is downside, however, the weekly (2nd chart) stochastics is at the neutral position.

General market overview

Generally during the Christmas period all the high players of the markets are on the holidays. I believe that is why it is easier to manipulate of stock or futures pricing. Right now everyone is talking about the Christmas rally. Well it is hard to tell, because the SPX index is in the neutral area where anything can happen. Although I have 5-6 open positions in both sides I have my own scenario for this market. Please look at the chart.

Both yellow rectangles represents support and resistance areas. Both areas are strong and worth keeping an eye. The general trend of the SPX is downside, because the price is below 200 MA, however, its conflicting with 10 MA and 30 EMA moving averages, because 10 MA is above 30 EMA which is bullish. The circle area shows the place where the decision will be made. Basically it is very risky to trade in this area just because it is totally unclear what will happen. EURO crisis is at the top of the stage. We can go both sides. 

 In the weekly time frame the general trend is still bullish, because the pricing is above 200 MA, however, 10  MA and 30 EMA crossover is giving a signal that right now for the short term period trend is downside. Moreover, comparing Stochastic both in daily and weekly charts the momentum side is bearish.
Personally I think that we are in a recession and we will be going lower. However, I will not place any more new orders while the direction of the market will become clearer. I see a lot of stocks that are worth shorting or going long. Market is very conflicting. It is wise to lower the risk and start evaluating the market after the Christmas and New Year.  

RRC double bottom

RRC double bottom is playing out nicely. 

My stock portfolio 11.12.16

I know, I know... SLV is a huge problem to my portfolio. However, I opened this position with a plan to have it for a longer time period. I'm not trading SLV on daily chart. I'm trading SLV on a monthly chart. You will understand the idea when you see the chart.. and here it is.. ;)
I'm planning to open one more new position in SLV when I will see the consolidation at the price.

Several interesting stock picks in my watchlist

NTAP looking for a place to short. Stop loss is near 39$. Low risk high reward trade.

 VRTEX short at the ressistance. Weak market, down trend, above TA zone. I can see a lot of possitive points for a good short. 

 SPRD support at 200 SMA. I will look at 60min chart for a up bounce confirmation.

 CPX long at support of 200 SMA. We can see at least 4 places where 200 SMA had a huge support/ressitance for a stock price.